Mesoscale Discussion 1585
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0721 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

   Areas affected...Southern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270021Z - 270215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms will continue to pose an
   isolated hail and wind threat through sunset. A watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past couple of hours have shown
   additional convective development along the southward propagating
   outflow of the initial cluster of supercells that developed in
   central SD. Recent IR imagery shows rapid cloud top cooling and an
   uptick in lightning activity associated with this newer convection,
   indicating that the environment remains unstable with little
   inhibition. Recent RAP analyses support this idea with little MLCIN
   and nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the outflow across southern SD.
   Effective bulk shear at 40-45 knots also remains favorable for
   organized convection. 

   Deep layer flow roughly oriented along the outflow boundary may
   increase the probability of storm interactions, which could limit
   the duration and coverage of the severe threat moving forward.
   However, given this environment initially discrete storms should
   remain capable a hail and wind threat through sunset when diurnal
   cooling will begin to increase inhibition and limit the potential
   for sustained mature convection.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43440275 43860216 44220089 44190016 43539979 43060003
               42990069 42950155 42970249 43440275