Mesoscale Discussion 1587
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

   Areas affected...Idaho into southwest Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270104Z - 270300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible
   through sunset. Strong downburst winds remain the primary threat
   associated with these storms. A watch remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends over the past 2 hours across
   ID and southwest MT have shown a slight uptick in convective
   coverage and intensity with several storms showing moderate to
   strong cloud top cooling. The environment over this region remains
   supportive of organized convection with upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
   and 45 knot effective bulk shear. Although there is some inhibition
   in place, orographic ascent has thus far been able to overcome this
   limitation. Furthermore, increasing (albeit weak) ascent ahead of an
   approaching shortwave trough to the west should help maintain
   sufficient ascent for convection through the evening hours.
   Low-level lapse rates across the region continue to support a strong
   wind potential, and instances of severe hail can not be ruled out
   given adequate instability, shear, and mid-level lapse rates. This
   activity should gradually diminish after sunset this evening, and
   the threat will remain too isolated to warrant a watch.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

   LAT...LON   42031713 43831701 45721458 46241347 45991129 45551010
               44461086 42941269 41941403 42031713