Mesoscale Discussion 1590
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AR...western and
   central MS...and eastern LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 271136Z - 271330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat associated with embedded supercells in
   feeder bands associated with Hurricane Laura is expected to increase
   this morning into early afternoon. A new tornado watch will be
   needed by 13z.

   DISCUSSION...Hurricane Laura continues to track northward across
   western LA this morning. A relative minimum in tornado activity has
   occurred overnight, but conditions are expected to rapidly improve
   through the morning hours to the east of Laura's center from eastern
   LA into western MS and southeast AR. Southeasterly low level flow
   currently across southeast LA into southern MS will continue to
   bring a corridor of 76-78 F surface dewpoints north/northwestward
   through the morning hours as low level flow becomes more
   southeasterly with time and northward extent across the MCD area.
   Cloud cover and bands of rainfall will limit heating somewhat, but
   expect temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s F. As a result,
   a corridor of MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg seems reasonable within
   the MCD area. Forecast RAP soundings show rapidly increasing low
   level hodographs through the morning, with storm motion adjusted 0-1
   km SRH values exceeding 200 m2/s2. Given an overall thermodynamic
   and kinematic parameter space conducive to supercells, especially
   where any stronger insolation/destabilization occurs, a tornado
   threat should increase during the morning and early afternoon hours
   from south to north across the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34939236 34929171 34569104 34139055 33289003 31938943
               31408943 30958957 30618988 30469037 30439105 30609160
               31049194 33279308 33859325 34209320 34489308 34719288
               34939236