Mesoscale Discussion 1592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1002 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   Areas affected...central Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271502Z - 271700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will likely intensify through midday.  It is
   uncertain whether the coverage of severe storms will warrant a
   severe thunderstorm watch.  Trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of strong thunderstorms
   over central Lake Michigan.  Water-vapor imagery shows a weak
   impulse over northeast WI moving towards Lower MI.  Surface analysis
   shows temperatures warming into the middle 80s across central MI
   with dewpoints around 70 deg F.  The 12z Detroit observed sounding
   showed moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) with a unidirectional
   westerly wind profile.  Stronger 650mb flow (50 kt) was sampled by
   the 12z Green Bay observed sounding in association with the
   aforementioned impulse.  

   As the boundary layer continues to destabilize, storms will probably
   strengthen over the next few hours with water-loaded downdrafts
   potentially capable of damaging gusts (50-65 mph).  Isolated large
   hail may accompany the stronger cores as well.  Will monitor
   convective trends in the short term.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 08/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44408706 43928275 43268239 42718249 43778725 44088730
               44408706