Mesoscale Discussion 1594
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   Areas affected...southern NY into CT and parts of Long Island

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 271638Z - 271915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated storms over central NY may soon begin a gradual
   transition to becoming surface-based.  One or two watches is likely
   across the general region from western NY eastward to CT and Long
   Island.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a west-east oriented cluster of
   sub-severe thunderstorms over central NY.  Surface analysis places a
   warm frontal zone located from southern NY east-southeast through
   parts of CT.  Surface observations show an increasingly unstable
   airmass protruding northeastward from near the Finger Lakes and
   northern PA into the adjacent counties of southern NY.  The 12z
   Buffalo observed sounding showed a 14.9 g/kg lowest 100mb mean
   mixing ratio and the rich low-level moisture sampled by the sounding
   has spread northward through all of NJ and is beginning to move into
   the lower Hudson Valley.  

   It remains unclear how elevated storms will evolve, but it seems
   probable one or two small-scale bowing segments may eventually
   develop given the strength of the mid-level flow and updraft
   seeding/precip loading of the mostly westerly wind profile.  Model
   guidance also suggests storms may either develop on the western
   flank over the activity currently south of Lake Ontario or
   eventually spread from Ontario into western NY later this afternoon.
   Regardless of the multiple possible scenarios, one or more line
   segments seems likely to develop this afternoon with a damaging wind
   risk being the primary hazard.  A tornado is also possible due in
   part to the very moist boundary layer and adequately strong 0-3 km
   shear.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 08/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42937717 42797472 41837220 41027189 40877260 41897643
               42117813 42627796 42937717