Mesoscale Discussion 1595
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   Areas affected...northern half of WV...western MD...northwest
   VA...south-central PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271814Z - 272015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Organized strong to severe multicells and marginal
   supercells are possible this afternoon from the northern half of WV
   and southwest PA eastward into far northern VA and central MD. 
   Damaging gusts and isolated marginal hail are the primary risks.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a blossoming area of widely
   scattered thunderstorms from the OH River north of Charleston, WV
   into the PA Allegheny mountains.  The airmass has become moderately
   unstable with RAP forecast soundings showing around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
   across this region.  The westerly wind profile showing increasing
   speed with height has resulted in an elongated hodograph.  Although
   forcing for ascent will remain weak, the CAPE/shear will
   conditionally favor a few stronger storms potentially capable of a
   wind/marginal hail risk through the afternoon.  Most of the
   convection-allowing model guidance does not generally show much of
   this activity moving east of the higher terrain and into the I-95
   corridor early this evening.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 08/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39018163 40417950 40667848 40577781 40187711 39587728
               38247978 38288079 38508148 39018163