Mesoscale Discussion 1596
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   Areas affected...much of Long Island...southeast NY...CT...RI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 271859Z - 272000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new convective watch will be needed soon for much of CT,
   southeast NY, Long Island, and possibly RI.  An organized band of
   storms will primarily be capable of isolated-scattered severe gusts
   but a tornado is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis over southeast NY, Long Island, and CT
   shows the airmass continues to destabilize to the northeast with
   southern CT warming into the 80s with upper 60s F dewpoints.  KALB
   VAD shows very strong 2-6km ARL west-northwesterly flow (50-75 kt). 
   The intense flow fields will enable the ongoing storms over the
   Hudson Valley to rapidly move east-southeast towards the CT coast
   during the next few hours.  Severe gusts are possible and swaths of
   wind damage may accompany the HP supercells or stronger bowing
   segments.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 08/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41347475 41887259 41567141 40957129 40567243 40747327
               41347475