Mesoscale Discussion 1611
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

   Areas affected...northeast MS...far northwest AL...middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281509Z - 281645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A few mini supercells may pose a risk for a tornado
   through the early afternoon from northeast MS and eventually
   spreading northeastward into parts of far northwest AL and middle
   TN.  The spatial coverage of the tornado risk will likely be
   confined to discrete storms on the southeastern flank of the rain
   shield over the MS Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of mini supercells over
   northeast MS developing to the southeast of a rain shield in
   association with Laura.  Visible satellite imagery shows a
   scattered-broken cumulus field immediately ahead of the developing
   convection from northeast MS northwestward into middle TN.  KGWX and
   KOHX VAD data show around 40 kt at 2km AGL and the magnitude of flow
   is represented well by RAP forecast soundings over this area. 
   Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted on the forecast soundings and
   appreciable clockwise curvature is evident in the hodograph.  Given
   the conditionally favorable combination of sufficient buoyancy and
   low-level shear, it seems plausible a risk for mini supercells may
   continue with some tornado risk through the late morning and into
   the afternoon.  A small/focused tornado watch is being considered.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 08/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34428911 35288828 36238781 36168698 35908659 35468679
               34218865 34428911