Mesoscale Discussion 1612
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

   Areas affected...Central and northern Ohio...southern
   Michigan...northern indiana and a small portion of far eastern
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281732Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Loosely organized convection is expected to continue
   through the afternoon. A watch is possible if a few convective
   clusters form and become better organized.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s
   with dewpoints in the low 70s across much of the southern Great
   Lakes. This destabilization has eroded inhibition and allowed
   numerous storms to develop in the region. Area VWPs show weak
   effective shear around 10 to 20 kts which has kept storms only
   loosely organized up to this point. The DTX/GRR/CLE VWPs show
   stronger mid-level flow suggesting more favorable shear in northern
   Ohio and southern Michigan. Therefore, the better chance for severe
   storms will likely be in these areas. Specifically, the arcing band
   of storms currently in central Ohio may become a bit more organized
   as it interacts with the better shear across northern Ohio. If any
   storms can cluster and become better organized, a watch may be
   needed, but otherwise, no watch is expected.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   LOT...

   LAT...LON   39958380 40368596 40368674 40618798 40808826 41058817
               41248777 41718685 42098615 42368540 42308396 41868236
               41348084 40578016 39858043 39428084 39298169 39668261
               39958380