Mesoscale Discussion 1613
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

   Areas affected...Western and central Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281750Z - 281915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible this afternoon. Damaging
   wind and large hail will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...The boundary layer has destabilized across southern and
   central Michigan with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to the
   mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. This has yielded 1000 to 2000
   J/kg MLCAPE across the region. A non-severe MCS is currently
   crossing Lake Michigan and will arrive in western Michigan within
   the hour. Reintensification of ongoing convection and/or additional
   development along the outflow boundary is expected in western
   Michigan. Moderate instability and effective shear around 35 to 40
   kts per GRR VWP would support organized storm modes including a
   squall line and possibly supercell organization, especially on the
   southern end of the line. A majority of the convection may stay on
   the cool side of the warm front which should limit severe weather
   chances. Therefore, despite the expectation for a few severe storms
   along and near the warm front, the small area may preclude the need
   for a severe thunderstorm watch. Conditions will be monitored
   closely and if a more widespread/greater severe weather threat
   appears imminent, a watch may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43568752 43838711 44158614 44208537 43958441 43518388
               43078366 42478435 42298529 42328610 42428684 42528725
               42658753 42738767 43568752