Mesoscale Discussion 1620
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

   Areas affected...parts of Virginia...West Virginia...North
   Carolina...the Delmarva

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282350Z - 290215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms, with isolated severe, may persist well
   into the evening from the Appalachians eastward to the Mid Atlantic
   Coast.

   DISCUSSION...The primary corridor of training storms currently
   extends from northern VA into DE, with an outflow boundary drifting
   south. Recently, widely spaced cells have developed over western VA
   and NC, where the air mass is uncapped and unstable. 

   MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg exists across the entire region, with modest
   southwesterlies aloft. Given the veering winds with height, storm
   mode has been primarily cellular. Weak rotation may occur in some of
   these cells this evening as the low-level jet increases.

   The combination of a large-scale upper trough over the Great Lakes
   and the remnant tropical system moving east across KY/TN will likely
   maintain lift through the evening and perhaps into the early morning
   hours.

   One possibility is that storms along the VA/DE outflow boundary
   persist, and translate south across eastern VA where the air mass
   remains strongly unstable. Strong wind gusts or hail would be
   possible. The more isolated cells across western VA/NC may also
   persist with a threat of localized strong wind gusts or hail. 

   Additional watches may not be necessary this evening as isolated
   cells remain widely spaced over a large area. However, if sufficient
   outflow mergers can occur, upscale growth and increasing wind threat
   could warrant a watch given the strong instability in place.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   35947912 35727979 35798149 36248201 36908202 38068106
               38388042 38977871 38697761 38837644 38807550 38597498
               38037501 37177563 36837627 35947912