Mesoscale Discussion 1624
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290720Z - 290915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may continue to be accompanied by
   strong, gusty winds through daybreak.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing vigorous cluster of storms near/north of Dodge
   City appears supported by a weak mid-level perturbation emerging
   from the Southwest, and associated lower/mid-tropospheric warm
   advection along the northern periphery of a remnant plume of warm
   elevated mixed-layer air.  

   This activity appears rooted above a substantive surface cold front,
   where the pressure gradient is contributing to 25-35 kt
   northeasterly flow around 850 mb, northeast through southwest of the
   Dodge City area. This may continue to slowly shift southeastward
   through daybreak.

   Despite a layer of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE for
   elevated moist parcels may only be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg,
   but modest shear in the convective layer has contributed to
   organization of storms.  This includes a compact area of stronger
   storms now passing just to the north of Dodge City, near an evolving
   MCV, with a rear inflow jet evident to its south.  This includes
   speeds in excess of 50 kt as low as around 500 feet, some of which
   may have mixed down and contribute to the 50 kt gust recorded at
   Garden City.

   MRMS CAPPI data does indicate weakening of this convection may be
   underway.  However, new thunderstorm development appears underway
   closer to the front, near Medicine Lodge, and the larger area of
   vigorous thunderstorm development may persist and gradually spread
   across much of central Kansas through daybreak.  While locally
   strong surface gusts may also continue, any additional severe gusts
   probably will remain rather localized and sparse in coverage.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38910011 39239901 39119734 38539608 37699644 37269718
               37099853 37359978 37910054 38910011