Mesoscale Discussion 1625
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas into southwestern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291253Z - 291430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms may maintain intensity another
   hour or two, accompanied by a few strong surface gusts, before
   weakening while spreading into portions of southwestern Missouri and
   adjacent  northwestern Arkansas after 10 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Storms which initiated overnight near Medicine Lodge
   KS, in closer proximity to the surface frontal zone, have become
   most prominent, consolidating into a small, intensifying storm
   cluster near/north of the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border the past
   few hours.  This probably has been aided by moderate updraft inflow
   of moist air with CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, in the presence of modest
   vertical shear beneath 20-30+ kt westerly flow around 500 mb. 
   However, as activity progresses east of the southern Kansas/Missouri
   state border vicinity by 15-16Z, latest objective instability
   analyses suggest that this unstable inflow will begin to become cut
   off, which seems likely to result in diminishing convective
   intensity.  Until then though, ongoing storms may continue to be
   accompanied by occasional strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37799539 37849457 37629364 37069331 36579387 36589482
               36919534 37799539