Mesoscale Discussion 1626
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0946 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291446Z - 291645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated strong/damaging winds may continue
   for another hour or two, but watch issuance remains unlikely at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex will continue eastward across
   parts of southern MO this morning. This convection is being aided by
   weak low-level warm advection, mainly in the 850-700 mb layer.
   Recent radar imagery from KSGF shows strong inbound velocities and a
   rear inflow jet with these storms, and the ASOS in Joplin MO
   recently measured a peak wind gust to 46 kt (54 mph). An isolated
   damaging wind threat should continue for the next hour or two across
   southern MO in association with this small bow. Short-term guidance
   suggests that the modest low-level warm advection aiding current
   storm intensity should further diminish by late morning, and a
   corresponding weakening trend to storms is expected by 1630-17Z.
   Given this expectation and that the current strong/damaging wind
   threat is fairly confined to a small area, watch issuance remains
   unlikely across southern MO at this time.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36639457 37229427 37759424 37679287 37059210 36539233
               36529435 36639457