Mesoscale Discussion 1630
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...western Nebraska
   Panhandle...Northern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291815Z - 291945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible in
   the central Rockies Front Range and central High Plains this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to form on the higher
   elevation in southeast Wyoming. Expect storm coverage to increase
   through the afternoon as storms continue to develop on the higher
   terrain in southern Wyoming and northern Colorado and move eastward
   into the Plains. Temperatures are only in the low 70s in the
   post-frontal airmass. However, enough residual moisture is in the
   area (dewpoints in the mid 50s) for MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. The KCYS
   VWP shows 40-45 kts of mid-level flow yielding around 35 kts of
   effective shear. In addition, the 12Z DNR RAOB showed moderately
   steep 7.8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, while instability
   is weak, enough shear is present to support the threat for a few
   stronger supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging
   wind. The isolated nature of the threat should preclude the need for
   a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41130583 42450488 42740341 41180303 39610308 38770422
               38740490 38960541 39790562 41130583