Mesoscale Discussion 1631
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...and far
   western OK/TX Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291909Z - 292115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase in the
   south/central High Plains this afternoon and into the evening. A
   watch will likely be needed by later this afternoon, once storms
   cluster and become more organized.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate low-level upslope flow is present across
   southern Colorado into northeast New Mexico. KPUX VWP shows the
   depth of the upslope flow around 1-1.5 km, but the wind speeds are
   weak. A mid-level shortwave trough has been moving across Colorado
   through the day with some weak convection on the southern periphery
   of the cloud shield associated with the mid-level shortwave. This
   convection is now approaching the east slopes of the Rockies where
   MLCIN is almost eroded according to SPC mesoanalysis, and where some
   additional storms have recently started to form. As the ongoing
   convection moves into the Plains, expect storm coverage to increase
   and start to organize given 25-35 kts of effective shear according
   to SPC mesoanalysis. One or more linear segments are expected to
   form out of this convective activity and move southeastward toward
   the TX/OK panhandles where MLCAPE is expected to increase to 1000
   J/kg.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38390591 38580450 38320218 37040196 35430277 35160360
               35200460 35690536 36310573 38390591