Mesoscale Discussion 1633
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the MO Bootheel...southern KY...and
   western/middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292022Z - 292215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong to locally damaging wind gusts may occur
   with ongoing storms. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed across parts of southern
   KY and the MO Bootheel along a southward-moving cold front. A rather
   moist and unstable airmass is present along/south of this front into
   parts of western/middle TN, where MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg has
   developed. VWPs from area radars show weak low-level westerly winds
   modestly strengthening and veering to northwesterly with height
   through mid levels, which is supporting 20-30 kt of effective bulk
   shear. Modest storm organization is possible, with mainly multicells
   and small clusters moving southward in tandem with the front for at
   least the next couple of hours. With modest steepening of low-level
   lapse rates ahead of the ongoing convection, isolated instances of
   strong to damaging wind gusts may occur through the rest of the
   afternoon. Current expectations are for this wind threat to remain
   rather isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36638980 36958911 37228533 36908480 35698515 35268570
               35498813 36008943 36638980