Mesoscale Discussion 1634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and far
   southwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292032Z - 292200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms in central Arkansas will continue
   southeast and pose an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms have developed from central into
   northeast Arkansas along an outflow boundary from earlier
   convection. Collapsing storm cores continue to reinforce this
   outflow boundary and push it southward. Marginal 0-6 km shear (27
   kts per LZK 19Z RAOB) parallel to this boundary has caused updrafts
   to struggle to maintain themselves and quickly move to the cool side
   of the boundary. Expect storms to continue to be undercut as the
   boundary moves farther south into an environment with even less
   mid-level flow. Nonetheless, strong instability with ~3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE and DCAPE around 1300 J/kg per 19Z LZK RAOB will continue to
   support a threat for isolated large hail and a few damaging wind
   gusts.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34859233 35579138 36009085 36088983 35468916 34598914
               33479014 33009113 33039286 33129346 33429400 33739433
               34159445 35229445 35379422 34859233