Mesoscale Discussion 1635
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

   Valid 292052Z - 292145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest near-term severe threat within Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 469 should focus across a small part of eastern
   New York.

   DISCUSSION...A special 18Z sounding from ALB showed a
   veering/strengthening wind profile through the troposphere.
   Adjusting this sounding with the latest surface observation suggests
   that instability still remains weak owing mainly to poor mid-level
   lapse rates, with MLCAPE around 300 J/kg, which is substantially
   less than 20Z mesoanalysis estimates of 500-1000 J/kg. Regardless,
   around 45 kt of effective bulk shear will continue to support the
   potential for organized storms, and a supercell north of Albany NY
   has recently produced 1.5 inch hail, along with showing signs of
   some low-level rotation. Damaging winds and isolated large hail
   should continue to be the main threats within Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 469, with the greatest near-term severe threat focused across
   a small part of eastern NY with ongoing strong/severe convection. In
   addition to the hail/wind threats, a tornado or two also remains
   possible across mainly eastern NY. Low-level winds are locally
   backed to southeasterly across this area per latest surface
   observations and VWP from KENX, which is supporting 100-200 m2/s2 of
   effective bulk shear.

   ..Gleason.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42857492 43057424 43377396 43367329 42737333 42617360
               42607465 42857492