Mesoscale Discussion 1636
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...northeast
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292207Z - 300030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated cells may develop over the next few
   hours. Any storm that develops will have the potential for brief
   microbursts capable of wind damage.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of storms with outflow boundary
   have moved across central AR, and will continue toward the MS River.
   Meanwhile, visible satellite imagery shows this boundary has
   progressed to near the OK/AR border where it has linked with the
   synoptic cold front. In addition, a substantial CU field exists from
   MLC to FSM.

   The air mass south of these boundaries is very unstable, with MLCAPE
   in excess of 3000 J/kg. Objective analysis indicates that MLCIN is
   become negligible in pockets, including farther southwest into north
   TX where temperatures have exceeded 105 F around the Metroplex.

   While shear is weak area-wide, any storms that develop through
   evening with have damaging microburst potential. In the near-term, a
   severe cell cannot be ruled out within the low-level lapse rate axis
   near the Metroplex and points west/southwest. 

   Over the next couple hours, at least isolated storms are possible as
   well along the outflow/front, from eastern OK into western AR, where
   GPS PWAT is approaching 2.00". Locally damaging gusts will be the
   main concern. Pulses of hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest
   cores over eastern OK.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32899811 33189756 33619720 34089699 34519704 35109682
               35579578 35959489 36039450 35909406 35729334 35199318
               34619338 34239404 33759483 33119578 32599682 32449745
               32479778 32619804 32899811