Mesoscale Discussion 1638
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470...

   Valid 292342Z - 300115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for a few damaging wind gusts will continue
   across WW 470 this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar shows a broken line of
   convection has emerged from parts of northeast New Mexico into
   southeast Colorado, now entering the OK/TX Panhandles. These storms
   continue to show signs of congealing as they progress eastward into
   richer boundary layer moisture (albeit weak MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg)
   associated with modest easterly upslope flow. Meanwhile, westerly
   flow aloft is yielding persistent deep-layer effective shear of
   25-35 kt, and forcing associated with a weak mid-level short-wave
   trough should promote convective organization and persistence of
   these storms. Given low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km across much of
   the Texas Panhandle, the threat for a few damaging wind gusts should
   persist for at least a few more hours. Convective trends suggest the
   line of storms will continue to track through WW 470 through 03z.

   ..Karstens.. 08/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34070280 34210356 34610412 35100466 35380488 35810475
               36140404 36520357 37040309 36960197 36480126 35540061
               34550067 34120122 34070280