Mesoscale Discussion 1643
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of north central Texas and adjacent portions
   of Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474...

   Valid 300652Z - 300745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 474
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may persist and overspread portions
   of north central Texas, including parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth
   Metroplex, through 3-5 AM CDT.  This may be accompanied by strong
   wind gusts and some hail, but activity, in general, may remain below
   severe limits.  A new severe weather watch is not anticipated, but
   trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A fairly significant convectively generated/enhanced
   surface cold pool is advancing southeast of the Texas
   Panhandle/southwest Oklahoma vicinity around 35 kt.  This has
   largely been taking place beneath a remnant shallow frontal
   inversion layer, and beneath remnants of warm and capping elevated
   mixed-layer air.  

   However, lift near the nose of stronger rear-inflow evident in radar
   imagery appears to be contributing to the maintenance of a small
   area of vigorous convective development, above/to the cool side of
   the leading edge of the convective outflow.  It appears that
   updrafts are still being supported by inflow of moisture emanating
   from a boundary layer characterized by lower 70s F surface dew
   points.  This is contributing to most unstable CAPE on the order of
   2000 J/kg, which could maintain convection several more hours.

   Based on objective instability analyses, and possible interaction
   with a downstream outflow boundary, this probably will remain
   focused south of the Red River, and could impact at least parts of
   the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex by 09-10Z.  Some of this activity
   may pose a risk for hail and strong surface gusts, but this probably
   will continue to remain mostly below severe limits.

   ..Kerr.. 08/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34209788 33629600 32829529 32009585 32429731 32959928
               33279946 33909831 34209788