Mesoscale Discussion 1644
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central MS/AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301839Z - 302115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing isolated strong/gusty winds
   and occasional damage should continue through the afternoon. Watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have formed this afternoon across
   parts of northern/central MS/AL ahead of a weak mid-level
   perturbation associated with earlier convection across AR. An
   outflow boundary is also a focus of storm development in northern
   MS. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints are in place across this
   region, and strong diurnal heating is supporting moderate
   instability, with MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Both low and
   mid-level flow are expected to remain weak (25 kt or less) ahead of
   the small-scale mid-level perturbation near the MS River at 1830Z.
   With a lack of appreciable deep-layer shear, storms should remain
   mostly disorganized as they move slowly eastward this afternoon.
   Even so, isolated strong/gusty winds around 40-60 mph may still
   occur owing mainly to downdraft accelerations from precipitation
   loading. These winds may be capable of producing occasional damage.
   The overall isolated and generally disorganized nature of the severe
   threat suggests watch issuance will not be needed.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33629045 34628987 34948891 34928564 33418533 32898607
               32678856 32529031 32849106 33629045