Mesoscale Discussion 1645
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western/middle TN and southern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302015Z - 302245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible
   with storms moving eastward through the early evening. Watch
   issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis shows a weak front draped
   generally west to east across western/middle TN, with a moist and
   moderately unstable airmass present south of the front. With robust
   diurnal heating, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg is present this afternoon
   across this region. Additional convective development is anticipated
   along/near this boundary through the rest of the afternoon as a weak
   impulse moves eastward from the Mid-South into the TN
   Valley/Southeast. Compared to locations farther south, recent VWP
   estimates from KOHX/KHPX in middle TN and southern KY show modest
   strengthening of west-southwesterly winds to around 25-35 kt in the
   3-8 km layer. Low-level flow, although generally weak, is also
   backed to east-southeasterly near the front. A combination of
   veering and strengthening winds through mid levels should support up
   to 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear, sufficient for modest storm
   organization. Multicells and small clusters capable of producing
   mainly isolated strong to damaging wind gusts should be the main
   severe threat as convection moves eastward across middle TN and
   southern KY through the early evening. The marginal deep-layer shear
   suggests that the overall severe threat will probably remain too
   limited/isolated to justify watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35028555 35668497 36468498 37018548 37238621 37218684
               36938760 36408832 35038848 35028555