Mesoscale Discussion 1648
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

   Areas affected...southern Nebraska into northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 310442Z - 310645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may eventually form along a surging cold front
   across Nebraska and into Kansas, with wind and hail potential.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a strong cold front moving
   across central NE and into northwest KS. While the air mass is
   currently capped, it remains unstable with MUCAPE to 2000 J/kg. 

   Given the strength of the low-level convergence, storms are expected
   to form along the front. These may briefly be supercells before
   getting undercut as deep-layer shear is favorable along with lapse
   rates aloft, and it is not clear whether an MCS will be able to form
   and keep pace with the surging front. Trends will continued to be
   monitored for a potential hail and wind threat developing over the
   next few hours.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41819769 41329695 40519659 39649702 39049765 38939854
               39099902 39579976 40239993 40719929 41819769