Mesoscale Discussion 1650
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern east  central Kansas into
   northwest and west central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 310956Z - 311200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
   needed, but thunderstorms developing across the region could pose
   increasing potential for marginally severe hail and strong surface
   gusts through daybreak.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with a modest, veering
   (to an increasingly westerly component) pre-frontal low-level jet
   appears to be contributing to ongoing increasing convective
   development in a corridor across northeastern and east central
   Kansas.  Although the Rapid Refresh suggests that this jet may begin
   to weaken shortly, lift appears to be increasingly focused within a
   weakness in inhibition associated with the warm elevated mixed-layer
   air, where the eastward advection of seasonably high moisture
   content is contributing to most unstable CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.  

   Given this destabilization, thunderstorm activity seems likely to
   continue to develop and intensify through daybreak.  Although the
   region will remain between the belts of stronger westerlies aloft,
   veering profiles with height along this corridor may be contributing
   to deep-layer shear at least marginally sufficient for organized
   strong/severe convection.

   Furthermore, as a southeastward advancing cold front begins to
   overspread the region by 11-13Z, enhancement of lift, where it
   intersects this band of elevated convection, may contribute to an
   intensifying, upscale growing cluster of storms.  This could be
   accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, in addition
   to occasional marginally severe hail.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40339513 39539380 38649374 38089457 38389541 39519609
               40039625 40339513