Mesoscale Discussion 1653
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern AR...the MO Bootheel and portions of
   western TN into northern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311716Z - 311845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong gusts are possible with strongest cells this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing early this
   afternoon ahead of an outflow boundary extending across eastern AR
   near the MS River, then arcing westward across southern AR. Strong
   heating ahead of the boundary has resulted in a corridor of moderate
   destabilization across northern MS into western TN, aided by surface
   dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s F. While storms will experience
   modest effective shear around 25-35 kt, resulting in some
   semi-organized cells/clusters, overall intensity/longevity of
   strongest storms should be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and
   lack of stronger forcing across the region. Nevertheless, a few
   strong gusts could occur, especially in pockets of steepening low
   level lapse rates, as PW values greater than 2 inches aid in wet
   microburst potential. Overall, the severe threat is expected to be
   limited and rather transient across the region and a severe
   thunderstorm watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34319096 35039054 35469056 35839064 36319068 36499038
               36458912 36338837 36278817 36088777 35848765 35268794
               34308884 33618980 33399036 33389082 33479109 33729119
               34319096