Mesoscale Discussion 1654
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Areas affected...southern MO...far southern IL and far western KY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...479...

   Valid 311743Z - 311915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478, 479
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong, locally damaging gusts will continue to be
   possible across parts of central into southeast MO through
   mid-afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convection is currently tracking southeast at
   around 40-45 kt across central MO into southern MO. If this storm
   motion continues, convection could approach the edges of WW 478 and
   479 in southeast MO around 19z. Recent CAPPI trends have shown some
   weakening of cores over the last hour, and IR satellite indicates
   modest warming of cloud tops. It is likely that convection has
   reached peaked intensity. 0-6km shear is rather weak downstream,
   though the airmass remains moderately unstable with MLCAPE values as
   high as 2000 J/kg noted in 17z mesoanalysis. Furthermore,
   approximately 50 kt of rear inflow has been measured by regional
   radar. As a result, some severe potential could develop with
   southeastward extent and move outside of the current severe
   thunderstorm watches. The need for a downstream watch will be
   evaluated.

   Further west, convection has struggled to intensify as it develops
   south/southeast into southwest MO. This is likely due to some
   remaining inhibition from earlier morning convection/outflow.
   Portions of WW 478 could be cancelled early if convective trends
   continue to weaken across the region.

   ..Leitman.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36479283 36529393 36729430 37079448 37409447 37639427
               37929224 38069129 37999019 37758891 37658869 37368841
               36968834 36598856 36478911 36358977 36529123 36479283