Mesoscale Discussion 1655
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Areas affected...Northern South Carolina and central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311954Z - 312130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
   through the afternoon. A watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in northern South Carolina have
   struggled to organize thus far, likely due to the weak shear in the
   region. This can be seen on the KCAE VWP where 0-6 km shear is less
   than 15 kts. Additional storms which have recently formed in
   west-central North Carolina are showing some better organization.
   This is likely due to slightly stronger shear with around 25 kts
   0-6km shear indicated by the KRAX VWP. Overall, storm mode is
   expected to be transient and single cell, but a few
   multicells/clusters may persist long enough to pose a damaging wind
   threat later this afternoon. The low-end/isolated nature of the
   threat will likely preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm
   watch.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34808142 35808048 36477959 36477873 36117787 35197788
               33807938 33968053 34588114 34808142