Mesoscale Discussion 1656
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma
   and northern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 312034Z - 312200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in
   the next 1 to 2 hours. All severe hazards are possible and a watch
   will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with
   dewpoints in the low to mid 70s along and ahead of a cold front
   which extends from southeast Kansas across Oklahoma and into Texas
   just south of Childress. This has yielded 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Some elevated convection has persisted in south-central Oklahoma for
   most of the morning and early afternoon, but has recently begun to
   weaken. Surface obs only show minor influence from this convection,
   and westerly mid-level flow should usher in steeper lapse rates
   across the region once again. Therefore, do not expect this activity
   to have much influence on the convection later this afternoon. SPC
   mesoanalysis suggests MLCIN is now eroded along the front. The 18Z
   LMN RAOB also showed a mostly eroded CAP. Therefore, expect storms
   to form along the boundary in the next 1 to 2 hours. The first
   evidence of this has started southeast of Childress. However, flow
   is weaker in that area, and thus, expect storm organization to be a
   slower/more difficult process. 

   Farther north, the KTLX VWP shows between 35 and 45 kts of mid-level
   flow which should provide ample shear for storm organization,
   including the potential for supercells. While storms will initially
   be discrete, this is expected to quickly change as numerous storms
   form along the front. The best chance for significant hail will be
   in the first 1-2 hours after storm organization when storm mode is
   more discrete with severe wind becoming the primary severe threat
   thereafter. 

   Additionally, a tornado or two is possible, specifically in southern
   and south-central Oklahoma where surface winds are backed. Low-level
   flow is not that strong, but there is significant veering in the
   lowest 1-km which may support a tornado threat.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33840020 34679924 35749783 36749675 37479579 37859524
               37999476 36559458 34579637 33649760 33499963 33840020