Mesoscale Discussion 1657
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Virginia into far northern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312132Z - 312300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Brief rotation and a weak tornado will be possible with
   storms nearing a warm front over the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Storms across far southern Virginia, including a
   longer-lived supercell in Lunenburg County, have shown transient
   rotation as they have approached a warm front draped across southern
   Virginia and northern North Carolina. Per SPC Mesoanalysis, weak
   buoyancy of 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2
   along the front will be supportive of weak low-level mesocyclones
   and a tornado or two for at least a couple more hours. The primary
   limiting factor will be decreasing buoyancy and increasing
   inhibition as the storms cross the warm front over the next 1 to 2
   hours. Until then, some weak tornado potential will exist with any
   storms able to utilize the enhanced low-level shear near the front.
   Due to the limited spatial and temporal extent, a weather watch is
   unlikely, though conditions will be monitored.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36507918 37127845 37277832 37027754 36607706 36187668
               35977666 35997764 36037798 36387898 36507918