Mesoscale Discussion 1659
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Areas affected...Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312345Z - 010115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may pose a risk for strong damaging winds
   and some hail through this evening. Uncertainty remains about the
   organization/severity of the storms.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the lee trough/dryline feature
   through central Texas have intensified over the last 45 minutes. A
   65 mph gust recorded near Colorado City, TX shows these storms have
   the potential to produce occasional damaging wind gusts and perhaps
   some hail. Steep low-level lapse rates, 8 to 9 C/km, from very warm
   surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F downstream of the ongoing
   storms will continue to support strong evaporational cooling and
   robust downdrafts. Storm organization so far has remained modest,
   with mostly multicellular structure noted. This is likely due to
   weak vertical shear of only 20 kt. Decreasing buoyancy and the
   limited vertical shear downstream may serve to limit greater severe
   potential. Despite the uncertainty in storm longevity/severity, a
   few strong updrafts may continue to propagate eastward through
   sunset, with a risk for gusty outflow winds and hail.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31799986 31440068 31660132 32320111 33240031 33399994
               33389857 32939847 31799986