Mesoscale Discussion 1662
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas...Missouri Bootheel...West
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011910Z - 012015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will track eastward across eastern
   Arkansas into west Tennessee this afternoon, with a localized risk
   of severe storms, including a tornado or two.  Trends are being
   monitored for further strengthening and a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...A large decaying MCS continues to track eastward this
   afternoon across much of western Arkansas.  The leading edge of this
   system has intensified somewhat in the past 30-45 minutes, with one
   storm in Conway county AR showing substantial rotation and the
   potential of a tornado.  This activity is moving along a low-level
   instability gradient, with 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and roughly 40 knots
   of effective shear posing a risk of supercell and bowing structures.
    Low-level winds on the LZK VAD indicate about 150-200 m2/s2 of
   0-3km SRH.  This may be sufficient to maintain at least a localized
   risk of brief tornadoes this afternoon.  Regardless, the strongest
   cells will pose some risk of strong/damaging wind gusts.

   ..Hart/Grams.. 09/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36259113 36508894 35888877 35058939 34309220 34349337
               34659345 36259113