Mesoscale Discussion 1663
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2020

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011935Z - 012200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this
   afternoon over parts of the Texas Panhandle and far western
   Oklahoma.  A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has redeveloped this afternoon
   across the eastern TX panhandle and far western OK, where MLCAPE
   values of 2000-2500 J/kg and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
   are present.  An upper trough over NM will continue drifting
   eastward, with midlevel height falls and cooling overspreading the
   greater instability during the next few hours.  This should help to
   promote scattered thunderstorm development.

   Forecast soundings and regional VAD profiles show relatively weak
   low-level winds.  However, 30-50 knot flow in the mid/upper levels
   coupled with moderately steep midlevel lapse rates will promote a
   few rotating storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.  A
   watch will be considered for this region in the next 1-3 hours as
   convective initiation approaches.

   ..Hart/Grams.. 09/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33160111 35020198 35850175 36540019 36269964 35249978
               34279956 33549927 32979937 32680036 33160111