Mesoscale Discussion 1668
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Louisiana...southern Arkansas...northwest
   Mississippi and western Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021735Z - 022000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern
   Louisiana to southern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi into western
   Tennessee this afternoon. A few locally strong to damaging wind
   gusts will be possible, but overall threat does not appear to
   warrant a WW.

   DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a slow-moving outflow boundary
   extends from northwest LA, through southern AR into western TN. The
   atmosphere south of this boundary is very moist with dewpoints in
   the low to mid 70s F. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but diabatic
   warming of the surface layer should boost MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg
   this afternoon. Vertical shear is weak, but a belt of 35-45 kt
   southwest winds in the 2-5 km layer along southern periphery of a
   shortwave trough is spreading northeastward through this region.
   Multicell storm modes are expected, but some of this activity might
   become capable of producing a few locally strong gusts as low-level
   lapse rates continue to steepen.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 09/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32369338 33579316 34389198 35019117 35558980 36338894
               36398721 35748795 34668928 34119031 33089204 32369338