Mesoscale Discussion 1670
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030019Z - 030145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will be possible with fast moving
   shallow convection along a cold front. A weather watch is unlikely
   but conditions will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As of 00z SPC mesoanalysis showed a 996 mb low
   deepening across eastern North Dakota. A strong cold front is
   sweeping to the southwest of the low triggering shallow frontal
   convection. Strong background winds from a 70-80 kt mid-level jet
   aloft will likely support strong downdrafts with the showers along
   and behind the front. While little lightning has been observed and
   instability is rather weak, (only 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE available),
   severe wind gusts will be possible through the next few hours. A
   weather watch is unlikely owing to the sporadic threat and weaker
   overall convection, but trends will be monitored.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46780030 47530044 48249936 48739838 48769771 48519682
               47899633 47099613 46449720 46359815 46589963 46750008
               46780030