Mesoscale Discussion 1672
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

   Areas affected...northern lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031555Z - 031800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few locally strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a
   line of storms through northern lower Michigan through early
   afternoon. The threat does not appear sufficient to warrant a WW.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid day a strongly forced low-topped line of
   thunderstorms is moving into the western portion of northern lower
   MI. This activity is developing within the pre-frontal confluent
   zone accompanying a strong, progressive shortwave trough. These
   storms are embedded within strong southwesterly deep layer winds
   with 50 kt at 850 mb increasing to around 80 kt at 5 km. The
   thermodynamic environment remains very marginal, and is the primary
   limiting factor with 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE and weak mid-level lapse
   rates. Nevertheless, latest satellite imagery shows clear skies
   downstream which will support destabilization and steepening lapse
   rates in the lowest 2 km. This will in turn increase the potential
   for some of the higher momentum air to be transported to the surface
   within the storm downdrafts.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 09/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...

   LAT...LON   44668542 45648492 45628420 45168338 44508384 44288487
               44668542