Mesoscale Discussion 1683
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2020

   Areas affected...central Illinois through central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072059Z - 072300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may produce locally strong wind gusts
   and some hail from central Illinois through central Ohio into the
   early evening. Overall threat does not appear to warrant a WW
   issuance at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Corridor of thunderstorm development associated with
   warm advection persists from central IN through central OH. A small
   cluster of storms over central OH appears to has transitioned to
   surface based with a gust front becoming oriented more perpendicular
   to the mean flow evident on radar advancing east southeast. The warm
   sector south of this activity has destabilized as temperatures rise
   through the 80s F with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and this moist and
   unstable inflow has contributed to modest storm intensification.
   Farther west, visible imagery shows cumulus increasing along a cold
   front across central IL and surface based development may occur by
   22Z. The atmosphere in this region is moderately unstable with
   2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE, but modest vertical shear from 25-35 kt will
   support multicell storm modes with isolated locally strong wind
   gusts and hail possible with the stronger cells.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 09/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40208561 40428323 40738223 40898150 40468119 40158149
               39988207 39668532 39308829 39648942 40208561