Mesoscale Discussion 1687
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...central Missouri...and into west
   central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082001Z - 082200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase along a cold
   front in the coming hours, and a strong storm or two may pose a
   brief wind/hail threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing along a cold
   front draped from western OK into southeast KS, central MO, and into
   IL over the past couple of hours. However, recent radar trends and
   IR satellite imagery have shown a few cells intensifying over the
   past 20-30 minutes. While instability across the region is
   supportive of convection (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), weak effective
   bulk shear on the order of only 15-20 knots will largely limit storm
   organization and favor storm clusters, especially as storm coverage
   increases along the front and outflow boundaries. Storm motions
   along and onto the cool side of the boundary will further limit
   storm longevity and the severe potential. However, the noted radar
   and satellite trends suggest that periodic storm intensification is
   possible and may support a very brief hail threat. Steep low-level
   lapse rates around 8-9 C/km on the warm side of the boundary will
   continue to support the potential for an isolated severe wind gust.
   Given the low probability of sustained convection a watch is not
   expected.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 09/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37329650 37899506 38379337 38959191 39529041 39808960
               39668890 39458869 39228875 38868959 38459047 37949181
               37489301 37099444 36829570 36759628 36739664 37109672
               37329650