Mesoscale Discussion 1696
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Panhandle and adjacent
   portions of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 491...

   Valid 161618Z - 161800Z

   CORRECTED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TAG

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 491 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for at least short-lived tornadoes probably
   will increase across and inland of the Emerald Coast and Big Bend
   vicinity through early to mid afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Even as Sally undergoes considerable weakening through
   the day, the core of stronger southerly flow above the boundary
   layer, to the east of the circulation center, will remain
   sufficiently strong to contribute to large, clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs.  This is expected to maintain support for
   occasional strengthening of low-level mesocyclones within
   intensifying updrafts embedded within several ongoing convective
   bands only very slowly shifting eastward across the western Florida
   Panhandle vicinity.

   Potential for tornadoes associated with these low-level mesocyclones
   appears to be increasing as surface dew points climb through the
   mid/upper 70s across areas near and west of the Florida Big Bend. 
   This may be boosted further through this afternoon, with at least
   weak boundary-layer warming east of/between convective bands.

   Across and north of the Alabama/Georgia state border vicinity,
   potential for tornadoes remains more uncertain, due to very slow
   east/northeastward movement of Sally, and the lingering presence of
   at least somewhat cooler/drier boundary-layer air associated with
   the southwestern periphery of eroding cold surface ridging to the
   lee of the Appalachians.

   ..Kerr.. 09/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31058589 30898499 30748438 30298411 29688457 29678528
               30248615 30648648 31058589