Mesoscale Discussion 1698
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

   Areas affected...Jacksonville area northward into far southeast
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162334Z - 170130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this evening, with a
   brief tornado possible over the next couple hours mainly over far
   southeast Georgia.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front over
   southeast Georgia, with easterly winds along it. Meanwhile, a
   warmer, more unstable air mass exists to the south over the
   Jacksonville area, with southerly surface winds.

   An arcing band of storms associated with Sally has been intersecting
   this front, where lift and shear are most favorable for tornadoes.
   The Jacksonville VWP shows 0-1 SRH around 100 m2/s2 within the
   warmer air mass, which is on the low-end of favorable spectrum for
   tornadoes. Therefore, as storms within the line continue to develop
   northeastward, the best region for a brief tornado will continue to
   be along the front, with threat again waning as storms move north of
   the boundary.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30308201 30708219 30918244 31158253 31328230 31558159
               31528119 31388110 30988135 30728131 30468145 30308165
               30298168 30308201