Mesoscale Discussion 1704
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180427Z - 180600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated small supercells cannot be ruled out mainly
   across far eastern North Carolina and toward the Outer Banks, over
   the next 1-2 hours. Overall trends are expected to remain down
   regarding severe potential.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows 75+ F dewpoints across
   Wilmington NC to the Outer Banks, contributing to around 1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Meanwhile, effective SRH remains at around 200 m2/s2, with
   most of it concentrated in the lowest 1km.

   Earlier stratiform precipitation has dissipated, with scattered
   showers and thunderstorms. A few small but notable cells persist,
   from Pamlico to Hyde County, with weak cyclonic shear at times.

   As the midlevel speed max continues northeastward and offshore,
   low-level winds just off the surface will veer, reducing low-level
   shear. However, a low-end threat of a few small supercells may
   persist for an hour or two toward the Outer Banks, where weak
   warm/moist advection persists. Any tornado threat is expected to be
   brief/weak, and a watch is unlikely.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34857623 34847703 35107716 35467702 36067650 36247600
               36167560 35687533 35277533 35137555 34857623