Mesoscale Discussion 1710
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0944 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

   Areas affected...western FL Panhandle into southern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241444Z - 241645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two is possible into the afternoon
   hours. The overall threat should remain confined and rather
   transient, and a watch is not expected at this time, but trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A band of low level convergence across the western FL
   Panhandle into southern AL is sustaining showers and thunderstorms
   this morning. A warm front extends southeast from a surface low over
   central MS to near the FL/AL border. Surface dewpoints in the low to
   mid 70s are noted across the FL Panhandle. Pockets of clearing skies
   is allowing temperatures to quickly warm into the upper 70s to 80s
   along the immediate coast, and low to mid 70s further north toward
   the FL/AL border. North of the warm front, denser cloud cover is
   limiting heating, with temperatures generally in the mid 60s to near
   70 F. 

   Near and south of the front, MLCAPE around 500-1200 J/kg in noted in
   latest mesoanalysis. Southeasterly low level winds are also
   enhancing low level shear, with 0-1 km SRH values around 150-250
   m2/s2 noted in mesoanalysis fields as well as observed via regional
   VWP data. Furthermore, modest 0-6 km shear around 30 kt will aid in
   storm organization, though poor lapse rates and weakening shear with
   eastward extent will likely limit longevity of strong cells,
   maintaining more transient supercell structures. Given favorable low
   level shear and a moist environment in the vicinity of the warm
   front, a couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 

   Given the narrow warm sector and transient nature of any low level
   rotation, a watch is not immediately anticipated. Trends will
   continue to be monitored into the afternoon. Some guidance suggests
   the warm front may develop further northward than currently
   expected, leading to a broader warm sector and potential threat
   area. In the short term, the main threat for a brief tornado or two
   will remain confined to a small portion of the western FL Panhandle.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 09/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30928792 31288779 31488697 31388645 31228561 30558526
               30128542 29788566 29898607 30118692 30108755 30248780
               30928792