Mesoscale Discussion 1711
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central to southeast AL and far
   southwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242054Z - 242300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible the
   remainder of the afternoon. Locally strong wind gusts or a brief
   tornado are possible, but the overall threat is expected to remain
   limited.

   DISCUSSION...A line of stronger convection is currently ongoing
   across parts of central AL just to the west of Birmingham and
   Montgomery, along an effective cold front/wind shift. Broken
   cloudiness and a northward advance of the warm front has allowed
   modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) to occur across the
   region as temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s and
   dewpoints increased to the low 70s. In conjunction with this
   destabilization, deepening convection is experiencing stronger
   vertical shear closer to the surface low, located to the northwest
   of TCL as of 20z. Furthermore, low level shear remain enhanced
   closer to the low and in the vicinity of the west-east warm front.
   Most recently, a weak, mini-supercell has been noted over northern
   Dallas County ahead of the main band of convection. Further south,
   another mini-supercell has been noted across Dale County in far
   southeast AL.

   Overall, the favorable warm sector remains somewhat narrow on either
   side of the warm front. A lack of stronger instability and limited
   daytime hours left in the convective cycle should ultimately limit
   the severe threat. Any strong convection and related low level
   rotation is expected to be very isolated and rather transient. As
   such, a watch is not expected at this time, though trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 09/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33328721 33528694 33168585 32778490 32378471 32028465
               31768468 31448486 31328490 31208523 31278567 32058695
               32348720 32878723 33128720 33328721