Mesoscale Discussion 1712
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1209 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

   Areas affected...central and coastal SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251709Z - 251945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Weakly rotating thunderstorms are possible through the
   early and mid afternoon.  Trends will be monitored for an increase
   in brief/weak tornado potential.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a loose cluster of developing
   convection over the coastal plain between Charleston and Columbia
   early this afternoon.  Surface temperatures have warmed to near 80
   deg F near the I-26 corridor with mid 80s near the Savannah River
   and rain-cooled lower 70s in northeast SC.  Area WSR-88D VAD data
   shows modest low-level flow per KCLX and KCAE but slightly stronger
   mid-level flow is observed by KLTX with a correspondingly larger
   hodograph.  Surface analysis indicates that surface flow has largely
   veered from the SC Lowcountry northward to Orangeburg.  The
   rain-cooled air mass over northeast SC has resulted in slightly
   backed low-level flow (south-southeasterlies) to the northeast of
   the I-26 corridor.  As the developing convection moves from the more
   buoyant air mass south of I-26 to slightly stronger low-level shear,
   a risk for brief storm-scale rotation may accompany the
   stronger/more organized storms.  A brief/weak tornado cannot be
   ruled out.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 09/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   33288182 33758170 34378004 34017941 33407934 32757986
               32558051 33288182