Mesoscale Discussion 1715
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0847 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

   Areas affected...Western Upper Michigan/Wisconsin border area

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

   Valid 260147Z - 260345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail continues, with perhaps some
   increase in potential for strong wind gusts, mainly near the Upper
   Michigan/Wisconsin state border area through around 10-11 PM CDT.
   It is unlikely that another severe weather watch will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Initial isolated supercell development west of Ironwood
   MI is gradually growing upscale near/southwest of the western Upper
   Michigan/Wisconsin border area.  While it is possible activity may
   become undercut by outflow from convection now spreading inland of
   the Upper Michigan Lake Superior coast, low-level
   south-southeasterly inflow of moderately unstable air may maintain
   vigorous convection another hour or so.  

   South/southeast of the Rhinelander WI and Iron Mountain MI
   vicinities, a drier and cooler boundary layer appears likely to
   persist.  As the evolving convective cluster encounters this air
   mass, it may begin to weaken by 03-05Z, as supporting mid/upper
   forcing for ascent associated with the short wave trough begins to
   shift across and northeast of Lake Superior.

   ..Kerr.. 09/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46049024 46518932 46678780 46328774 45748956 45779025
               46049024