Mesoscale Discussion 1716
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0307 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin into upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262007Z - 262130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across
   portions of central Wisconsin with the potential for large to very
   large hail with the strongest storms as they move into upper
   Michigan into the evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite, radar, and lightning trends over the past
   hour have shown thunderstorms increasing in coverage/intensity over
   portions of central Wisconsin where RAP mesoanalysis places the
   leading edge of a northward-advancing instability axis. While the
   evolution of this activity over the next few hours is somewhat
   uncertain, owing in part to lack of recent model support and poor
   instability (generally less than 500 j/kg) over the area due to
   persistent cloud cover, very strong effective bulk shear (e.g., > 50
   knots sampled by area VADs) suggests any storm that can become
   organized could become supercellular with the large (to very large)
   hail being the primary hazard due to the elevated nature of the
   activity.

   A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed over the next hour or so
   if storms can become well established/organized.

   ..Elliott/Grams.. 09/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45969009 46408774 46248614 45708574 44928604 44628721
               44268825 44088956 44599105 45449103 45969009