Mesoscale Discussion 1718
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0859 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

   Areas affected...Upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

   Valid 270159Z - 270400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm progressing east of Sawyer Air
   Force Base may still pose some risk for severe hail and strong
   surface gusts for another hour or so.  Otherwise, the severe weather
   potential appears to be decreasing and a new severe weather watch is
   not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...The stronger lower/mid tropospheric warm advection
   regime (roughly around the 700 mb level) driving the most vigorous
   thunderstorm activity continues to spread rapidly
   east-northeastward.  By 03-04Z, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests
   this forcing will be shifting east of the upper Great Lakes region
   into southeastern Ontario.

   One cell, in particular, now progressing east of Sawyer AFB MI, may
   still be posing some risk for severe hail and strong surface gusts. 
   However, CAPE within elevated moist inflow into this storm may begin
   to decrease within the next hour or so based on latest objective
   instability analyses.  And there is little else evident to suggest
   an appreciable increase in severe weather potential over what has
   occurred the past few hours.

   ..Kerr.. 09/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   46428852 46758659 46378543 46118593 45838805 46428852