Mesoscale Discussion 1719
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1053 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Eastern Kansas into Western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271553Z - 271730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms with the potential for large
   hail are possible late this morning and into the afternoon. The
   relatively isolated nature of the stronger storm coverage may
   preclude a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm has recently developed along/near
   a southward-moving cold front across portions of Lyon County,
   Kansas, with a 1.25-1.5" hail report recently near Admire. RAP
   mesoanalysis suggests 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in this area with
   effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots. While there may be a tendency
   for the cold front to undercut some updrafts, at least a few
   updrafts should persist long enough to produce severe hail,
   especially given the strong shear through the hail growth zone.
   Thunderstorms should continue to move across eastern Kansas and into
   Western Missouri, as depicted by several 12Z HREF members. 

   While convective coverage may remain too limited for a watch
   issuance, trends will continue to be monitored and a Slight Risk
   will be added in this area with the 1630Z Convective Outlook to
   cover this threat.

   ..Elliott/Grams.. 09/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39189581 39519474 39339345 38819277 38359296 38059373
               37879465 38019558 38539631 39189581