Mesoscale Discussion 1720
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272051Z - 272215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in
   coverage/intensity through this evening with isolated large hail and
   damaging wind gusts possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
   unlikely due to the expected isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery over the past half hour
   have begun to show signs of deepening convection near/northeast of a
   surface meso low and along/near a southward-moving cold front across
   portions of southwestern Missouri. While low-level shear across the
   region is rather anemic (as evidence by the 20Z KSGF radiosonde),
   strong deep layer shear amidst MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, suggest
   supercell structures are possible with any persistent activity as it
   progresses eastward into central Missouri. Large hail is the primary
   risk, though damaging wind gusts are also possible near storm
   clusters/mergers. 

   A Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears unlikely at this time due to the
   tendency for the aforementioned cold front to undercut updrafts,
   which would limit storm longevity and thus reduce severe
   thunderstorm coverage.

   ..Elliott/Grams.. 09/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37799389 38559261 38369188 38069178 37419187 37049241
               36629343 36609448 37799389